Forecasts predict a surge in transactions early in the year, followed by a slowdown due to upcoming stamp duty changes.
The UK housing market demonstrated surprising resilience in 2024, despite ongoing affordability challenges, but experts are now warning of potential volatility ahead.
According to the latest analysis from Nationwide, changes to stamp duty set to take effect in 2025 could lead to a spike in property transactions early in the year, followed by a slowdown as the market adjusts.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, highlighted that despite the significant challenges faced by potential buyers—such as high house prices relative to earnings and the continuing impact of high rental costs—mortgage market activity and house prices showed surprising resilience in 2024.
“House prices remained high relative to average earnings, which meant the deposit hurdle remained high for prospective first-time buyers,” Gardner explained. This situation was compounded by rental growth, which has made it harder for many renters to save for a deposit.
For those who could gather the necessary savings, the challenge of managing monthly mortgage payments was equally difficult.
Borrowing costs remained well above those prevailing in the aftermath of the pandemic,” Gardner added, “a typical mortgage rate for a buyer with a 25% deposit hovered around 4.5% for much of the year, a stark contrast to the 1.5% rates seen in late 2021 before the Bank of England began raising interest rates.
What’s in the mail for 2025?
Looking ahead to 2025, Nationwide expects house prices to grow modestly by 2% to 4%.
Gardner also warned that the housing market could experience significant volatility due to changes in stamp duty.
“This will lead to a jump in transactions in the first three months of 2025, especially in March, as buyers rush to avoid the new stamp duty changes,” he said.
But he cautioned, “that this would likely be followed by a period of weakness over the following three to six months, mirroring trends seen in the aftermath of previous stamp duty adjustments.”
Short-term surge, long-term strengthening
Despite the expected short-term volatility, Nationwide’s chief economist is optimistic about the long-term outlook for the housing market.
Gardner stated, “Providing the economy continues to recover steadily, as we expect, the underlying pace of housing market activity is likely to continue to strengthen gradually.”
This improvement would come as affordability constraints ease through a combination of modestly lower interest rates and earnings growth outpacing house price growth.
Gardner predicts that house prices will likely remain in the 2-4% growth range throughout 2025, and that housing market activity will see steady improvement as buyers become less constrained by affordability challenges.
What does this mean for buyers and sellers?
The upcoming changes to stamp duty are likely to impact the housing market significantly, creating a rush to secure properties before the new rules are implemented.
This surge in transactions could lead to a more volatile first quarter in 2025, with the market then potentially cooling off in the months following.
For those considering entering the market in the near future, it may be wise to act before the changes take effect, while sellers might benefit from the expected jump in demand early in the year.
However, as Gardner notes, any short-term fluctuations in activity should not overshadow the long-term, gradual growth expected in the market overall.