The UK property market could see mortgage approvals reach their highest annual total since 2021, with a projected 13.4% surge in 2025, according to new research from award-winning mortgage adviser Alexander Hall. Buoyed by improving market sentiment, economic stability, and enhanced mortgage affordability, the forecast signals a robust year ahead for the sector.
Alexander Hall’s analysis draws on two decades of Bank of England data, tracing mortgage approval trends across the UK property market to predict future performance.
The findings highlight 2024 as a turning point—a year of renewed stability and buyer confidence.
Last year saw 754,983 mortgage approvals, a striking 30.8% leap from the 577,173 recorded in 2023, which had marked the lowest annual total since 2010.
By contrast, 2024’s figure—the strongest since the pandemic-driven boom of 2021—reflects a market regaining its footing after years of turbulence.
Looking ahead, Alexander Hall anticipates further growth in 2025, projecting 856,346 approvals despite the reversion of stamp duty thresholds to pre-pandemic levels.
This optimism stems from a confluence of factors: a stabilising economy, proactive lender adjustments, and early signs of monetary easing.
While 2024 delivered only two base rate cuts—falling short of expectations for affordability gains—the stage is set for a more dynamic 2025.
Stephanie Daley, Director of Partnerships at Alexander Hall, offered her insights:
“The mortgage market rebounded impressively in 2024, with approvals climbing significantly from the previous year’s lows. That said, the limited base rate reductions left some hoping for more relief on affordability. The outlook for 2025 is brighter still—an early base rate cut has already lifted spirits, and lenders are proactively trimming rates in anticipation of a thriving market.”
For London’s property scene, where affordability and buyer activity remain perennial concerns, this forecast offers a dose of optimism.
After getting through the post-pandemic hangover and economic headwinds, the mortgage sector appears poised to power ahead, underpinned by data-driven confidence and a market finding its stride.
As 2025 unfolds, all eyes will be on whether this upward trajectory holds—and what it means for the capital’s property market.